Here we go again...

Bill Clinton’s remarkable interview on Fox News is a reminder of why he won 2 elections. The contrast with Bush is stark. Even after having lost his temper, Clinton was coherent stating specifics in his efforts to kill Osama Bin Laden. That was Clinton’s A Game!

Now Condi Rice wants us to believe that the Bush administration was just as aggressive as the Clinton’s in facing the threat of terrorism. She also claims that they were not given a plan on how to deal with the threat. Once again, the Bush administration is not on the same side with the facts.

For all those interested in truth and facts, watch this clip:

http://video.msn.com/v/us/msnbc.htm?g=6d59cc85-6335-4cd1-b772-eaf924103673&f=&fg=email

Terrorism 101: The Spectacular

Terrorism is a common tactic in, though not exclusive to asymmetric warfare. It is warfare on the cheap. It is a tactic as old as warfare itself. The Ancient Romans had specialised teams of shock troops whose job it was inflict mass casualties on helpless civilians, in effect acts of terrorism. Groups like the Irgun in Palestine and Nelson Mandela’s ANC have used acts which could be described as terrorism against what they would consider an unjust or incorrect political situation. Terrorism is in effect, like warfare, politics by other mostly violent means.

While Al Qaeda’s resources and resourcefulness are considerable, its’ means of delivering its’ warfare is limited by the vastly greater resources of their main enemy, the United States. It therefore has to maximize the effectiveness of whatever resources it brings to play. ”The Spectacular” is a type of terrorist attack devised by al-Qaeda which involves a highly visible mass casualty operation almost always on soft targets which captures the imagination of both its’ followers and its’ victims. For the victims it creates a sense of vulnerability and insecurity. For the followers these attacks are meant to inspire and create a sense of progress in the struggle as well as a sense of staying in the fight. It may also serve toinspiring some to immitate and also seek "martyrdom in jihad".

5 years ago today, on the 11^th of September 2001 the attack on the North East of the United States of America proved to be a near perfect example of the Spectacular, successfully executed to devastating effect. On that morning four planes were hijacked. The world had never experienced a suicidal high jacking of an airliner and so at first reacted in a typically sluggish manner. One plane is flown into the North Tower of the World Trade Center. Only one camera just happens to capture the impact. The stage is set. The impact is significant enough to attract the interest of the news media, more and more of whom had begun running live feeds as the significance of the event becomes clearer. Several video cameras are now trained onto the towers. Suddenly as if from out of nowhere, a second passenger plane descends at full throttle towards Lower Manhattan. The plane crashes, passengers and all, into the South Tower in a huge ball of smoke and fire with the whole world watching live! For anyone who has ever been in plane or in a tall building the prospect was bone chilling. Yet it was achieved by 19 operatives on suicide missions armed with box cutters. They manage to execute the ultimate sucker punch. As a secondary benefit, the attack managed to provoke a massive over reaction by America which has in turn provided a further propaganda coup for al-Qaeda and a vastly more receptive pool of potential recruits.

As a tactic, this particular attack cannot be replicated. Never again will passengers sit idly by during any further hijacking of airliners. If the passengers are not able to subdue the attackers they will probably be sacrificed as a last resort to prevent further casualties on the ground. As a tactic the Spectacular proved its’ worth that day and has been adapted for attacks in Bali, Madrid, London, Beslan, Mumbai and several times in Iraq.

I fear this genie is out of the bottle. My only hope is that the powers that be are up to the strategic challenge of this formidable and dangerous enemy, al-Qaeda.

Resurgent Insurgents

5 years after the Taliban was toppled as the government of Afghanistan the war seems to have restarted. It is now becoming clear that the Taliban was never actually defeated. The Taliban is fighting hard in Afghanistan there have been scores of terrorist attacks since the ill advised declaration of a “War of Terror”. Iran has supplied weapons to Hezbollah in order to attack the main US ally in the region, Israel who incidentally could not dislodge Hezbollah from her northern border despite massive firepower and relentless bombing. Iraq is in flames and fighting a civil war in all but name. Thousands are dead around the world.

At every turn George Walker Bush has proved that he is not a strategic thinker. The reaction to 9/11 has proved almost as dangerous as the terrorists that caused it the only difference being that the terrorists were trying deliberately to cause devastation while the current US administration has just been inept to put it very mildly.

It is hard to see where all of this will end up. I certainly do not want to live in a Taliban style caliphate but I am not confident that the George Bush is going in the right direction to prevent this.

AMERICA IS CREATING MORE TERRORISTS THAN IT CAN EVER KILL OR CAPTURE!!

Sanctions against Iran? Dont make me laugh!!

In most, if not all, countries of the world in order to enforce laws there are systems and process to identify those who may have committed acts deemed illegal and normally what follows is a punishment of some sort which serves to dissuade the perpetrator from repeating his actions, exacts a retribution for those actions and discourages others from following acting in a similar fashion. While many nations are fair in their application of law, often the systems of trial and punishment are hijacked by questionable regimes and used to terrorise a populace into submission and compliance. Whatever the nature of the regime, the punishment aspect is what gives law enforcement its' bite. It is what actually makes it enforcement rather than a statement of what the state wished people would do. If we move from the micro to the macro environment, an effective way to scale these processes up has yet to be devised. Saddam Hussein is a case in point.

Sanctions against Iraq after the Kuwait invasion and the First Gulf War disproportionately affected the people particularly the poor unconnected people. Saddam Hussein was unconcerned as long as he and his sons could frolic in their lavish palaces and live the good life. When he need more funds, he figured a way around the sanctions by getting around the now infamous "Oil for Food Programme" which was devised to assuage the guilt of Western diplomats who felt at least partly responsible for the death of almost a million Iraqi children. Saddam was unconcerned with the fate of the ordinary Iraqi hence rendering economic sanctions totally useless. Travel bans and targeted sanctions are just as useless as Mugabe proved by attending the Pope's funeral.

I do not know what the solution is but if we are to get a solution in North Korea, Burma (or is that Myanmar), Zimbabwe among other hot spots we as a world need to find an effective way to punish despotic leaders in a way which actually amounts to a genuine punishment that they would care about. In honesty I do not know what the solution is but I can see the problem and if some system is not found, state actors will continue to abuse the rights of their populations and thumb their nose at the international community.

Israel and her Neighbors

After centuries of persecution, pogroms and discrimination culminating with the Nazi holocaust, I can completely understand the bunker mentality that still prevails in Israel to this day.

Finally after so many centuries, the Jews can have thier own state... And people can say whatever they want about the Jews and money... the truth is they all seem to know what to do with it when they have it and have built themselves a gem of a homeland. I do not begrudge them this.

My problem is thier attitude towards thier neighbors. Now, I acknowledge that there are many in the region who would like to "wipe Israel off the map" as the saying goes. I do believe however that there are moderates all around, even within the groups dimissed as terrorists who accept the reality that Israel is going nowhere and cannot be forced into any action it does not wish to take. The assertion that Israel will not talk till thier right to exist is recognised to me seems ridiculous. Any challenge to Israels' right to exist in reality can only be rhetorical, a starting point for negotiations from which compromise can be reached and I am certain that the every Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese thinking person knows this to be true. For Israel to set a precondition for final status negotiations is, in my view, just plain stupid as it leaves the agenda at the mercy of the rejectionists and extremists on both sides.

There is no shooting solution to Israels final status, no great victory to be had. In the end, as history has taught us, the only solution to these issues is dialogue and compromise. If Israel continues to refuse to talk more Israeli's and Palestinians will die.

One more thing why does the settlement building policy of Israel seem so much like the Nazi policy of Lebensraum?