The War on Terror continues...

The US strategy in Somalia is both painfully obvious and completely baffling. It would seem to be based on thinking still stuck in the cold war era.

The Islamic courts which brought some semblance of order and stability to many parts of Somalia have been forced into a tactical retreat much like the Taliban in 2001 by US backed Ethiopian forces.

The idea that the American "War on Terrorism" is against a monolithic global network of jihadists is pervasive in Washington. This is not dissimilar to the idea that communists had a network of allies over whom they had absolute ideological control. The American view appears to be that if our enemies have certain factors in common, they are essentially the same enemy. No exceptions permitted or nuance considered. My enemy's friend is my enemy.

Before the Islamic courts took control of most Somalia the country was literally in complete chaos. For decades several warlords had carved the territory into fiefdoms and regularly duelled for territory, resources and pride. The fate of ordinary people was not largely catered for and no effective system of justice was in place and murder, robbery, rape and intimidation were rife as well as an burgeoning industry for assassins carrying reprisal beatings and killings.

The courts brought a system for the people not only to deal with criminality but a system to begin to organise a united country. The main port in Mogadishu had been used as a base for pirates who had frequently attacked international shipping off the horn of Africa. The Islamic Courts made it one of their military objectives to put a stop to this. They essentially provided relative sense of order for the first time since in more than 20 years.

The US has decided to disregard all of this as a matter of policy and back forces opposing this movement based on the premise that some elements of the Islamic Courts appear to share the ideology of al-Qaeda. There are elements of the Islamic Courts movement whose rhetoric causes concern but in my observation they seem to be well reigned in and under control. At first the US attempted to back the warlords responsible for most of the chaos with money and equipment but the disparate warring clans could not unite to present a unitary defence against the Courts movement who were able to overcome them all militarily with increased public support largely due to the American intervention.

The choice of Ethiopia, a long standing enemy of Somalia, a country with whom they have fought a war to proxy for the US in battling the Courts movement and propping up the weak Somali government is equally baffling. This is a government so weak that up till very recently it had to sit in Kenya, a foreign country. For this government to be propped up using foreign troops, particularly Ethiopian will in the very least inflame many Somalis and I cannot see how this government can gain any legitimacy as long as Ethiopian troops are present. The problem is that there is no chance this government can survive 10 minutes in Mogadishu without Ethiopia's backing. I continue to watch with interest.